The Fall Market Takes a Turn - Expectations

Doug Echelberger

09/17/25

 
The Orange County housing market is showing signs of seasonal cooling—yet the expected shift toward a buyer's market is more perception than reality. Many homes are still lingering on the market, but strategic pricing remains the difference between stagnant listings and swift sales.
 
What We're Seeing:
→ Active inventory dropped slightly to 5,079 homes, but remains near its 5-year peak
→ Demand slipped again to 1,490 pending sales, the lowest since January
→ Expected Market Time is now 102 days, essentially unchanged from August
→ Luxury market slowdown continues:
 • 243 days for homes over $2.5M
 • 385 days for homes over $6M
→ Inventory is down—but demand is, too
 
Insights That Matter:
▪ 39% of active listings have now been on the market for 60+ days
▪ Just 17% are under contract—far below the 30–40% seen in a hot market
▪ Most homes aren’t wildly overpriced—they’re simply 5–10% off, and buyers are holding firm
▪ Pricing remains the #1 reason for lack of offers
▪ A small drop in rates would activate more buyers—but sellers need to meet the market, not chase headlines
 
The Bottom Line:
It’s not just that homes are sitting—it’s that buyers are tuned in to value. With demand slipping and market times stretching, this is a season for smart strategy. For sellers, accurate pricing is key. For buyers, leverage remains strong—but great homes still move quickly.
 
📲 If you'd like to discuss what this means for your home or investment strategy, I’m here: 949-463-0400 - Doug
 
 

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