Low Rates Prop Up Affordability: Even with record-level home prices, low mortgage rates have kept affordability in check.
As home values rocket upwards, affordability weakens, yet homes are still not too far out of reach for most buyers because of low mortgage rates.
It is important to note that when interest rates do rise down the road, that it will impact affordability considerably. At today’s $1,100,000 median detached sales price and $101,000 household income, a 3.5% rate would result in a monthly payment that would be 47% of a homeowner’s income. At 3.75% it would rise to 49%. Today’s historically low mortgage rates have led to a heightened sensitivity to smaller rises in mortgage rates. As rates rise in the future, the housing market will most certainly downshift.
The Bottom Line: In considering today’s ultra-low mortgage rate and rising median household income, the monthly payment for the record level median detached sales price is still affordable. There is not enough emphasis on the importance of looking at the monthly payment of a home and the impact on a family’s budget; instead, way too much weight is placed on where prices stand today.
Orange County Housing Market Summary:
- The active listing inventory added 8 homes in the past two weeks, nearly unchanged, and now totals 2,255. From May 1st to May 15th, there were 20% fewer homes that came on the market compared to the 5-year average between 2015 to 2019 (2020 was skewed due to COVID-19), 424 less. Last year, there were 5,044 homes on the market, 2,789 additional homes, or 123% more.
- Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 44 pending sales in the past two weeks, down 1%, and now totals 3,083. Rates remain below 3%, maintaining demand’s current brisk pace. Last year, there were 2,035 pending sales, 34% fewer than today. Keep in mind, housing was thawing out rapidly in May and June as rates dropped to historically low levels.
- The Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, remained unchanged at 22 days in the past couple of weeks, an extremely Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days). It was at 74 days last year, slower than today.
- For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) with an Expected Market Time of 16 days. This range represents 28% of the active inventory and 38% of demand.
- For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected Market Time is 17 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 20% of the active inventory and 26% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the Expected Market Time is 16 days, a Hot Seller’s Market.
- For homes priced between $1.25 million to $1.5 million, the Expected Market Time is 21 days, a Hot Seller’s Market.
- For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 22 to 28 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time remained unchanged at 41 days. For homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 114 to 126 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $1.5 million, accounts for 36% of the inventory and 16% of demand.
- Distressed homes, both short sales, and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.4% of all listings and 0.5% of demand. There are only 5 foreclosures and 5 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 10 total distressed homes on the active market, down 4 from two weeks ago. Last year there were 39 total distressed homes on the market, more than today.
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