There's officially a crack seen in the market. I shared this with you two weeks ago, and the charts are showing that there has been a slowdown in demand. Interest rates have risen significantly in the last four to six weeks, and naturally, any rise like that is definitely going to put some brakes on the market. However, don't expect this to just automatically flip quickly to a buyer's market. There's still very little inventory out there, there's still overbidding, we are just seeing the market starting to slow down a little bit in comparison to the red-hot unprecedented market we've been having up until now. Expect this to kind of level out as we move through summer. What I expect to see mostly is sellers becoming a little bit more price conscientious than before, where in the past they were really overpricing properties and able to get that price for it. Sellers will need to begin to be a little bit more in tune with where comps are and pricing a bit more in line in order to drive the market on their property. Always, if I can offer any assistance or answer any questions, please give me a call or text at 949-463-0400.
Orange County Housing Market Summary:
- The active listing inventory surged higher by 180 homes, up 12%, and now totals 1,732 homes, still its lowest level for this time of the year since tracking began 18 years ago. In the first couple of weeks of April, there were 23% fewer homes that came on the market compared to the 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019), 476 fewer. Last year, there were 2,384 homes on the market, 652 additional homes, or 38% more.
- Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 45 pending sales in the past two weeks, down 2%, and now totals 2,241, its first drop of the year. Last year, there were 3,070 pending sales, 37% more than today. The 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,777, or 24% more.
- With supply surging higher and demand dropping, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, increased from 20 to 23 days in the past couple of weeks, still an insanely Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days). It was at 23 days last year, identical to today.
- For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) with an Expected Market Time of 17 days. This range represents 19% of the active inventory and 27% of demand.
- For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected Market Time is 18 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 21% of the active inventory and 27% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the Expected Market Time is 19 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 11% of the active inventory and 14% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1.25 million to $1.5 million, the Expected Market Time is 21 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 10% of the active inventory and 11% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1.5 million to $2 million, the Expected Market Time is 25 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 11% of the active inventory and 10% of demand.
- For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time in the past two weeks increased from 34 to 40 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $8 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 91 to 84 days. For homes priced above $8 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 267 to 157 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, accounts for 28% of the inventory and 11% of demand.
- Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.1% of all listings and 0.2% of demand. There is only 1 foreclosure and no short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 1 total distressed home on the active market, down 2 from two weeks ago. Last year there were 11 total distressed homes on the market, similar to today.
- There were 2,645 closed residential resales in March, 18% less than March 2021’s 3,212 closed sales. March marked a 49% increase compared to February 2022. The sales to list price ratio was 106.9% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.2% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.1%. That means that 99.7% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
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