We're seeing a bit of a pullback right now in the spring market. When you take a look at the demand chart in Orange County, you can see it has flatlined very recently. This is something we typically expect in April, seeing these changes. A lot of buyers tend to want to sit on the sidelines during this time as they reject the usual rising spring market prices of homes listed for sale, and it is also tax season. However, this year in 2022, we have another element in play: rising interest rates. A rise in interest rates typically slows the market, but since our market has been so cash-infused right now, this rise hasn't really slowed it until we've seen the inventory actually drop. Right now, available properties have pretty much flatlined. Summer may have a small rise in inventory, but demand may then be slowing down along parallel to slowing available inventory. Always, if I can offer any assistance or answer any questions, please give me a call or text at 949-463-0400.
Orange County Housing Market Summary:
- The active listing inventory decreased by 2 homes, nearly unchanged, and now totals 1,552 homes, its lowest level for this time of the year since tracking began 18 years ago. In March, there were 18% fewer homes that came on the market compared to the 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019), 685 fewer. Last year, there were 2,240 homes on the market, 688 additional homes, or 44% more.
- Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 2 pending sales in the past two weeks, nearly unchanged, and now totals 2,286. Last year, there were 3,162 pending sales, 38% more than today, and the peak for demand in 2021. The 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,668, or 17% more.
- With supply and demand unchanged, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, remained unchanged at 20 days in the past couple of weeks, an insanely Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days). It was at 21 days last year, similar to today.
- For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) with an Expected Market Time of 14 days. This range represents 19% of the active inventory and 28% of demand.
- For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected Market Time is 17 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 23% of the active inventory and 27% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the Expected Market Time is 17 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 10% of the active inventory and 12% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1.25 million to $1.5 million, the Expected Market Time is 16 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 9% of the active inventory and 12% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1.5 million to $2 million, the Expected Market Time is 20 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 10% of the active inventory and 10% of demand.
- For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time in the past two weeks increased from 33 to 34 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $8 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 75 to 91 days. For homes priced above $8 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 195 to 267 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, accounts for 29% of the inventory and 12% of demand.
- Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.2% of all listings and 0.2% of demand. There are only 3 foreclosures and no short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 3 total distressed homes on the active market, up 1 from two weeks ago. Last year there were 8 total distressed homes on the market, similar to today.
- There were 1,774 closed residential resales in February, 22% less than February 2021’s 2,283 closed sales. February marked a 2% drop compared to January 2022. The sales to list price ratio was 103.7% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.2% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.3%. That means that 99.5% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
To view the complete Report and Charts, join our free Housing Report email list here.