Hot Seller’s Market: With a record low supply of homes available to purchase and staggering demand, the market is extremely hot.
Today, there are 2,633 homes available to purchase, an ultra-low supply of homes that shattered the prior record low achieved in January 2013, at 3,161. That is 17% lower. To put it into proper perspective, last year there were 3,901 homes, 48% more. Two years ago there were 5,911, 124% more. Current demand (a snapshot of the last 30-days of new escrows) is at 1,895 pending sales, slightly lower than 2013’s 2,031. Yet, it is 32% higher than last year’s 1,434 level, and 63% higher than the 1,165 pending sales reached in 2019.
Orange County Housing Market Summary:
- The active listing inventory decreased by 42 homes in the past two-weeks, down 2%, and now totals 2,633, its lowest level to start a year since tracking began in 2004. COVID-19 is not suppressing the inventory despite the surge in cases. In December, there were 24% more homes that came on the market compared to the prior 5-year average. Last year, there were 3,901 homes on the market, 1,268 additional homes, or 48% more.
- Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 300 pending sales in the past two-weeks, down 14%, and now totals 1,895, its strongest start to a year since 2013. COVID-19 has no effect on demand. Record low rates are fueling today’s exceptional demand. Last year, there were 1,434 pending sales, 24% fewer than today.
- The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County increased from 37 days to 42, a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days). It is the strongest reading to start a year since tracking began in 2004. It was at 82 days last year, much slower than today.
- For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) with an Expected Market Time of 29 days. This range represents 32% of the active inventory and 47% of demand.
- For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected Market Time is 26 days, a hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 15% of the active inventory and 25% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the Expected Market Time is 51 days, a hot Seller’s Market.
- For homes priced between $1.25 million to $1.5 million, the Expected Market Time is 55 days, a hot Seller’s Market.
- For luxury homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 57 to 55 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 120 to 124 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 304 to 373 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $1.5 million, accounts for 37% of the inventory and only 13% of demand.
- Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.3% of all listings and 0.2% of demand. There are only 4 foreclosures and 5 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 9 total distressed homes on the active market, down 6 from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 45 total distressed homes on the market, more than today.
- There were 3,091 closed residential resales in December, 25% more than December 2019’s 2,469 closed sales. December marked a 9% increase compared to November 2020. The sales to list price ratio was 98.7% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.2% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.3%. That means that 99.5% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
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