Hot November Housing: With an Expected Market Time of 41 days, in the midst of November, the Orange County housing market is hotter than the Spring Markets of 2014 through 2019.
Just because everyone is sipping their favorite Starbucks latte from their recently unveiled holiday cups, does not mean that housing will slow this year. In fact, if a home is priced according to its Fair Market Value and is in great condition, it will procure multiple offers, a bidding war will ensue, and it will often sell for more than the asking price. Home values are on the rise. The difference this year is that there is an ultra-low supply of available properties to purchase and homes are flying into escrow nearly as fast as they are coming on the market. It is sizzling hot in the middle of November and the start of the Holiday Market, now through the first few weeks of January.
The Expected Market Time (the time between pounding in the FOR-SALE sign to opening escrow) is currently at 41 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. The Expected Market time is the overall speed of the market, the lower the number, the faster homes are being placed into escrow. Anything below 60-days is considered a Hot Seller’s Market. That is a market with a tremendous number of showings, multiple offers, sellers get to call the shots, and home values are on the rise.
Orange County Housing Market Summary:
- The active listing inventory decreased by 101 homes in the past two-weeks, down 3%, and now totals 3,843, its lowest level since January 2018. COVID-19 is not suppressing the inventory. In October, there were 16% more homes that came on the market compared to last year. Last year, there were 5,531 homes on the market, 1,691 additional homes, or 44% more.
- Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 220 pending sales in the past two-weeks, down 7%, and now totals 2,799. COVID-19 has no effect on demand. Record low rates are fueling today’s exceptional demand. Last year, there were 2,328 pending sales, 17% fewer than today.
- The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County increased from 39 days to 41, a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days). It was at 71 days last year, slower than today.
- For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) with an expected market time of 30 days. This range represents 34% of the active inventory and 47% of demand.
- For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 25 days, a hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 16% of the active inventory and 27% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 40 days, a hot Seller’s Market.
- For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time increased from 50 to 56 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 62 to 72 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 116 to 118 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 255 to 308 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 39% of the inventory and only 17% of demand.
- Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.3% of all listings and 0.3% of demand. There are only 5 foreclosures and 7 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 12 total distressed homes on the active market, down 1 from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 54 total distressed homes on the market, more than today.
- There were 3,359 closed residential resales in October, 31% more than October 2019’s 2,564 closed sales. October marked a 0.6% increase compared to September 2020. The sales to list price ratio was 98.4% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.1% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.2%. That means that 99.7% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
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