Values Rising: The housing market velocity is extremely fast, and it is a Hot Seller’s Market where values are rising swiftly and multiple offers is the norm.
There are not enough homes on the market to keep up with today’s intense buyer demand. There is a run-on housing. Homes are flying off the market faster than they are coming on, and the inventory has been dropping further as the year has progressed. Housing’s momentum lines up strongly in favor of sellers. In looking closely at the housing economic model of supply, demand, mortgage rates, affordability, buyer demographics, and market velocity, the data illustrates that the current trajectory of the housing market is not going to change anytime soon.
With mortgage rates remaining below 3%, a level never reached prior to last year, today’s housing market is one of the strongest on record, and it has everything to do with supply and demand. The current number of available homes to purchase is less than the current demand readings. The active inventory today is at 2,438 homes, and demand (last 30-days of new escrow activity) is at 2,863 pending sales. There are 425 fewer homes available to purchase compared to current demand. Homes are flying into escrow as quickly as they are coming on. The Expected Market Time is at 26 days, less than one month, the lowest level since tracking began in 2004.
Orange County Housing Market Summary
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The active listing inventory decreased by 55 homes in the past two-weeks, down 2%, and now totals 2,438, its lowest level since tracking began in 2004. In January, there were 6% fewer homes that came on the market compared to the prior 5-year average, 169 less. Last year, there were 4,030 homes on the market, 1,592 additional homes, or 65% more.
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Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, surged by 273 pending sales in the past two-weeks, up 11%, and now totals 2,863, its strongest mid-February reading since 2013. The record low mortgage rate environment is fueling today’s exceptional demand. Last year, there were 2,479 pending sales, 13% fewer than today.
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The Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, decreased from 29 days to 26, an extremely Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) and the strongest reading since tracking began in 2004. It was at 49 days last year, slower than today.
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For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) with an Expected Market Time of 19 days. This range represents 32% of the active inventory and 43% of demand.
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For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected Market Time is 16 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 16% of the active inventory and 26% of demand.
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For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the Expected Market Time is 25 days, a Hot Seller’s Market.
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For homes priced between $1.25 million to $1.5 million, the Expected Market Time is 20 days, a Hot Seller’s Market.
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For luxury homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 48 to 39 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 66 to 60 days. For homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 166 to 147 days.
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The luxury end, all homes above $1.5 million, accounts for 37% of the inventory and only 14% of demand.
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Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.2% of all listings and 0.2% of demand. There are only 4 foreclosures and 2 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 6 total distressed homes on the active market, up 2 from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 34 total distressed homes on the market, more than today.
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There were 2,250 closed residential resales in January, 24% more than January 2020’s 1,817 closed sales. January marked a 27% drop over to December 2020. The sales to list price ratio was 99.0% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.04% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.13%. That means that 99.82% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
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