Early Trends: Market Signals

Doug Echelberger

02/4/26

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What the data says—versus what we’re seeing.

According to the latest Orange County Housing Report, the market is still finding its footing after the holidays. Inventory is rising modestly, buyer demand has begun to surge, and the Expected Market Time sits at 75 days, making this the slowest end of January pace since 2019 on paper.

But here in the Coastal Collective of San Clemente, Dana Point, and San Juan Capistrano, that headline does not tell the whole story.

We are seeing momentum build. Demand has jumped sharply in recent weeks, mortgage rates have eased compared to last year, and well positioned homes are finding traction. Buyers are selective, yes. They are also active, informed, and moving when the right opportunity presents itself.


Countywide Snapshot:
→ Active listings: 3,179 homes, up 4 percent in recent weeks
→ Demand: 1,264 pending sales, up 38 percent in just two weeks
→ Expected Market Time: 75 days, the highest January level since 2019
→ $2.5M to $4M homes: 117 days on market
→ $6M and above listings: 267 days on market

What We’re Seeing Locally:
▪ Coastal inventory remains measured, not flooded
▪ Lower mortgage rates are quietly improving buyer confidence
▪ Homes that are priced strategically and prepared thoughtfully are moving
▪ Buyers are engaged, just more intentional and patient

The Bottom Line:

Not every headline fits every neighborhood.

While Orange County is still recalibrating after years of market shifts, the coastal communities are showing early signs of renewed balance. The pace feels steady, not stalled. For buyers and sellers alike, the real advantage comes from understanding what is happening right here, not just what the countywide numbers suggest.

 
📲 Let’s talk about what the numbers mean for you: 949-463-0400 – Doug
 

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