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Housing data demonstrates that a significant drop in home values are not on the horizon despite the current market slowdown.
There are many reasons that housing has not crashed over the years despite the continued sentiment that it was inevitable. There will not be a plunge in home values because there are simply not enough available homes to purchase. Today’s inventory is at 3,044 homes. While there are 40% more homes this year compared to last year, the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 4,988, 64% more than today.
The inventory has been stuck at anemic levels since the beginning of the pandemic. The difference is striking when comparing today’s supply to the two years leading up to the Great Recession, 2006 and 2007. The inventory peaked at 16,006 homes in 2006, and 17,898 in 2007. The 2023 peak was 2,496, and in 2024, it was 3,695. The inventory has remained at very low, anemic levels compared to the glut of available homes leading up to the Great Recession. The 3-year average peak prior to the pandemic was nearly 7,000, still considerably lower than the levels reached in 2006 and 2007.
Today’s United States housing stock is the strongest ever. Ever since the Great Recession, buyers have been purchasing homes with strict qualifications, strong credit, great jobs, and low fixed payments. There is record tappable equity (the amount of equity a homeowner can use for a loan while still retaining 20% equity), record equity rich (50% plus equity), and a record number of homeowners who own their home free-and-clear. There will be no housing crash because of the strength of the homeowner and the limited supply of homes available to purchase.
What we're seeing:
→ 40% more inventory today than this time last year
→ Pre-COVID levels had 65% more inventory than we have now
→ Demand is 35% lower than it was pre-COVID
→ Higher interest rates are driving these trends
→ Buyers are waiting on the sidelines for rates to drop
→ The expected market time in OC is 70 days (pre-COVID average was 58 days)
→ In October, when rates decreased, demand spiked
→ Active inventory is now declining
What we can expect:
→ Inventory numbers will increase in January
→ Further increases are expected in February and March
→ Inventory levels will likely peak in July and August
Orange County Housing Market Summary:
- The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks plunged by 314 homes, down 9%, and now sits at 3,044, its lowest level since the start of June and its largest drop of the year. In November, 32% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 713 less. Yet, 47 more sellers came on the market this November compared to November 2023. Last year, there were 2,180 homes on the market, 864 fewer homes, or 28% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 4,988, or 64% extra.
- Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 53 pending sales in the past two weeks, down 4%, and now totals 1,310. Last year, there were 1,113 pending sales, 15% fewer. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 1,774, or 35% more.
- With supply falling faster than demand, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, decreased from 74 to 70 days in the past couple of weeks. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 87 days, slower than today.
- In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced below $750,000 increased from 57 to 58 days. This range represents 19% of the active inventory and 23% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million decreased from 60 to 49 days. This range represents 15% of the active inventory and 22% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1 million and $1.25 million decreased from 47 to 45 days. This range represents 9% of the active inventory and 14% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million decreased from 57 to 45 days. This range represents 11% of the active inventory and 13% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million decreased from 91 to 56 days. This range represents 14% of the active inventory and 12% of demand.
- In the past two weeks, the expected market time for homes priced between $2 million and $4 million decreased from 104 to 76 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 182 to 106 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 359 to 380 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, account for 30% of the inventory and 16% of demand.
- Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, comprised only 0.2% of all listings and 0.2% of demand. Only four foreclosures and two short sales are available today in Orange County, with six total distressed homes on the active market, unchanged from two weeks ago. Last year, six distressed homes were on the market, identical to today.
- There were 1,842 closed residential resales in October, up 13% compared to October 2023’s 1,632 and up 14% from September 2024. The sales-to-list price ratio was 100.0% for Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for 0.1% of all closed sales, and there were no short sales. That means that 99.9% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.