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With the number of available homes to purchase at extremely low levels, there simply are too many buyers competing against each other despite high mortgage rates.
Today’s 37-day Expected Market Time means that housing has once again dipped below the level where the pace is unreal. It was at 23 days in both 2021 and 2022 when home values were skyrocketing higher. In 2013, the Expected Market Time was at 33 days, the only year before COVID that reached the white-hot level for housing. The six-year average from 2014 to 2019 for this time of year was 61 days, much different than the current insane pace. With patience, buyers could isolate a home within a reasonable amount of time and were not competing against so many buyers writing offers on nearly every home.
There is nothing available for buyers to purchase right now. Anything that does hit the market is inundated with showings and plenty of offers as long as the home is in reasonable shape and the seller is not stretching the asking price. There is nothing spectacular about the number of buyers looking to purchase today. Today’s insane pace is not a function of juiced demand. The issue is that there are only 2,053 homes available today in the middle of April when there are typically around 5,800 (the 3-year average between 2017 to 2019). The lack of FOR-SALE signs in every community is why today’s housing market is insane.
Housing insanity has returned to Orange County, and it will not change anytime soon.
What we're seeing:
→ South OC is a healthier market with a higher price point
→ Quick paced market in Irvine & Central OC
→ Buyers are interested, but not all purchasing quickly
→ Homes are selling quicker if priced correctly
→ 30-60 day marketing time frame depending on price
→ Higher end properties have longer days on market
What we can expect:
→ Inventory to stay consistent in South OC
→ Days on market going down as demand increases
Orange County Housing Market Summary:
- The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks decreased by 89 homes, down 4%, and now sits at 2,053, the second-lowest mid-March level since tracking began in 2004 behind last year. In March, 39% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 1,346 less. Last year, there were 1,732 homes on the market, 321 fewer homes, or 16% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 5,780, or 182% more.
- Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 103 pending sales in the past two weeks, up 7%, and now totals 1,663. Last year, there were 2,241 pending sales, 35% more than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,777, or 67% more.
- With the inventory falling and demand rising, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, decreased from 41 to 37 days in the past couple of weeks, its lowest level since May of last year. It was 23 days last year, much stronger than today.
- For homes priced below $750,000, the Expected Market Time decreased from 32 to 27 days. This range represents 21% of the active inventory and 29% of demand.
- For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 26 to 22 days. This range represents 16% of the active inventory and 26% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 31 to 27 days. This range represents 10% of the active inventory and 13% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1.25 million to $1.5 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 33 to 30 days. This range represents 9% of the active inventory and 11% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1.5 million to $2 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 56 to 52 days. This range represents 13% of the active inventory and 9% of demand.
- For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time in the past two weeks dropped from 76 to 72 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 210 to 212 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 308 to 341 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, account for 31% of the inventory and 11% of demand.
- Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, comprised only 0.5% of all listings and 0.5% of demand. Only five foreclosures and five short sales are available today in Orange County, with ten total distressed homes on the active market, unchanged from two weeks ago. Last year there was one distressed home on the market, similar to today.