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The Orange County housing market is entering its fall season, and while the pace has changed considerably from spring, slower does not necessarily mean weaker.
Inventory appears to have peaked. Buyer demand has remained relatively steady over the past few weeks. And Expected Market Time, after climbing through much of the summer, has essentially leveled off. If mortgage rates remain near their current range, we could be heading into a fall market where both supply and demand gradually decline together, without a dramatic change in the overall pace of the market.
But the countywide numbers only tell part of the story. What is happening in San Clemente, Talega and certain price ranges looks very different from the broader Orange County market.
The Current Snapshot
The Orange County housing market is entering its fall season, and while the pace has changed considerably from spring, slower does not necessarily mean weaker.
Inventory appears to have peaked. Buyer demand has remained relatively steady over the past few weeks, and Expected Market Time, after climbing through much of the summer, has essentially leveled off. If mortgage rates remain near their current range, we could be heading into a fall market where both supply and demand gradually decline together, without a dramatic change in the overall pace of the market.
But the countywide numbers only tell part of the story. What is happening in San Clemente, Talega, and certain price ranges looks very different from the broader Orange County market.
Orange County Inventory: 4,982 active listings, down 72 homes over the past two weeks. Inventory may have reached its seasonal peak in mid-August and is expected to gradually decline from here.
Buyer Demand: 1,528 pending sales, down just seven over the past two weeks and essentially unchanged.
Expected Market Time: 98 days, compared with 99 days two weeks ago and 94 days at this time last year.
Those numbers point to a market that has slowed from spring but is not currently experiencing a significant late-summer deterioration.
The Fall Shift
Real estate is seasonal, and the Fall Market typically begins at the end of August and continues until the week before Thanksgiving. This is normally the time of year when fewer homeowners list their properties, unsuccessful sellers begin taking homes off the market, and buyer demand gradually declines as families return to school and normal routines. Over the past three years, an average of 2,625 homes came to market in May compared with just 2,164 in September and 2,104 in October.
In other words, falling demand doesn't automatically translate into rising inventory. Right now, we're seeing both sides of the market begin to contract. Inventory dropped from 5,054 homes to 4,982, while demand has barely moved over the past two weeks. That's why Expected Market Time actually improved slightly from 99 to 98 days.
If mortgage rates remain relatively stable, the report suggests this fall could look more like 2024, when supply and demand declined at similar rates and overall market time changed very little. That distinction matters. A seasonal slowdown isn't necessarily the same thing as a declining housing market.
Real Estate Is Local
Orange County currently has an Expected Market Time of 98 days, but San Clemente is moving considerably faster at 72 days, while Talega is at just 51 days.
That gap is important because countywide statistics can create a misleading picture of what a buyer or seller is actually experiencing in an individual community. San Clemente also recorded 70 closed sales in July, compared with 55 during July 2025, while Talega recorded 16 sales compared with seven a year earlier. Both markets had a median of just 10 days on market for July closed sales.
This is exactly why I continue to emphasize that there is no single "real estate market." Conditions can change dramatically by city, neighborhood, price point, property type, and even street.
Luxury Is Telling a Different Story
One of the more interesting developments is occurring at the luxury end of the market. Over the past two weeks, inventory above $2.5 million declined 2%, while demand increased 6%. That combination pushed Expected Market Time from 155 days down to 144 days, its strongest reading of the year and the lowest level since February 2025.
The year-over-year comparison is even more notable: luxury inventory is down 16%, while demand is up 44%. Last year, Expected Market Time for luxury properties stood at 248 days compared with 144 today.
And within luxury, there are substantial differences. Homes between $2.5 million and $4 million currently have a 95-day Expected Market Time, while properties between $4 million and $6 million are at 185 days, and homes above $6 million are at 352 days. Again, price point matters.
What This Means for Buyers
Buyers have more leverage today than they did during the highly competitive markets of the past few years, but leverage should not be confused with deeply discounted prices. Despite a slower market, Orange County still isn't dealing with an abundance of supply. Through July, 27% fewer homes came to market than during the pre-COVID 2017–2019 average.
That limited supply helps explain why pricing has remained relatively sticky despite longer market times. For buyers, the opportunity is less about throwing out low offers and more about identifying motivated sellers, understanding how long a property has been on the market, knowing the competition, and negotiating the entire transaction intelligently. There is more room to negotiate. That doesn't necessarily mean sellers are willing to give their homes away.
What This Means for Sellers
For sellers, fall becomes much less forgiving of aspirational pricing. Buyers have more choices, more time to make decisions, and very little incentive to chase an overpriced property. The report specifically identifies precision pricing as one of the most important factors for sellers entering the Fall Market.
That doesn't mean sellers need to underprice their homes. It means the initial positioning needs to be right. Condition, location, upgrades, recent closed sales, pending sales, and current competition all have to be evaluated together. The homes that are positioned correctly can still attract strong buyer interest. The homes that aren't can quickly accumulate market time, particularly as we move closer to the slower Holiday Market.
The Takeaway
We're entering a more balanced and nuanced fall market. Orange County as a whole is moving at a 98-day pace, yet San Clemente is at 72 days and Talega is at 51 days. Luxury demand is strengthening even as the broader market remains slower than it was in spring. Inventory appears to have peaked, and the seasonal decline in new listings is beginning.
There are opportunities on both sides, but they're increasingly property-specific. For buyers, this market rewards patience, preparation, and knowing where real negotiating leverage exists. For sellers, pricing and positioning correctly from day one will become even more important as we move deeper into fall. And for both, the headline number rarely tells the entire story.
If you're thinking about buying or selling, let's look at what is happening in your specific neighborhood and price range and build a strategy around the market that's actually in front of you. 949-463-0400 – Doug