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Orange County Housing Report | The Price Is Right

Pricing: Expired listings are up 64% so far in 2019, illustrating how crucial pricing is this year to avoid becoming another statistic.

Ignoring the expert on pricing advice is understandable, but unfortunate. The best advice is to lean into their years of experience and understanding of current market conditions, trends, and pricing strategies. The emotions behind pricing must be removed to find success. A buyer’s lens is much different. They do not want to inherit deferred maintenance. They want to see upgrades. The location and lot size are important considerations. Most importantly, buyers are not willing to overpay for a home, especially in 2019.

The active listing inventory is at its highest level since 2011. There are 29% more homes on the market compared to last year. With more inventory, the number of unsuccessful sellers is escalating. So far this year, there have been 3,455 expired listings, up 64% compared to last year. Based upon the number of closed sales through April, 30% of homes that were marketed did not find success. At this time last year, it was only 17%.

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

  • The active listing inventory increased by 228 homes in the past two weeks, up 3%, and now totals 7,413, the highest level since September 2014. Last year, there were 5,730 homes on the market, 1,683 fewer than today. There are 29% more homes than last year.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 2 pending sales in the past two-weeks, nearly unchanged, and now totals 2,655. Last year, there were 2,726 pending sales, 3% more than today.
  • The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County increased from 81 days two weeks ago to 84 days today, a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 to 90 days) and the highest level for this time of the year since 2011. It was at 63 days last year.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 and 90 days) with an expected market time of 61 days. This range represents 39% of the active inventory and 54% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 63 days, a slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 24% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 93 days, a Balanced Market.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time decreased from 128 to 125 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 134 to 174 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 228 to 262 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 463 to 568 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 34% of the inventory and only 14% of demand.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.8% of all listings and 1.4% of demand. There are only 22 foreclosures and 41 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 63 total distressed homes on the active market, down 5 in the last two-weeks. Last year there were 42 total distressed homes on the market, fewer than today.
  • There were 2,558 closed residential resales in April, 2% fewer than April 2018’s 2,614 closed sales. April marked a 13% increase from March 2019. The sales to list price ratio was 97.9% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.3% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.4%. That means that 99.3% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
  • To request to read/download the full report and charts, please email info(at)echelberger(dotted)com.

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