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Orange County Housing Report | Over The Peak

Housing demand in Orange County has already peaked, meaning the market will slow from here.

AN EARLY PEAK: With a slight rise in interest rates since dropping to 4% at the end of March, demand peaked in April this year.

“The Happiest Place on Earth” is right in our back yard. Remember the unbelievable anticipation and unbridled excitement when you were a kid heading to Disneyland with the family? You could barely close your eyes the night before. Now imagine heading to this magic kingdom and arriving at noon. No big deal, on Mondays in May it is open until 11 PM. There is still plenty of time, right? You just missed the first few hours. Those may be THE best hours with the shortest lines, but 11 hours at Disneyland will be amazing and memorable, nonetheless. Selling a home after the peak in demand is similar. THE most optimal time to sell a home maybe in the rearview mirror, but there is still plenty of runway left in the housing market to accomplish the goal in making a move.
Orange County Housing Market Summary:

  • The active listing inventory increased by 252 homes in the past two weeks, up 4%, and now totals 7,185. It was the largest increase so far this year. Last year, there were 5,434 homes on the market, 1,751 fewer than today. There are 32% more homes than last year.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 71 pending sales in the past two-weeks, down 3%, and now totals 2,653. Last year, there were 2,675 pending sales, 1% more than today.
  • The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County increased from 76 days two weeks ago to 81 days today, a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 to 90 days) and the highest level for this time of the year since 2011. It was at 61 days last year.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) with an expected market time of 58 days. This range represents 39% of the active inventory and 55% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 70 days, a slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 19% of the active inventory and 22% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 86 days, a slight Seller’s Market.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time increased from 108 to 128 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 133 to 134 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 186 to 228 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 425 to 463 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 33% of the inventory and only 15% of demand.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.9% of all listings and 1.3% of demand. There are only 27 foreclosures and 41 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 68 total distressed homes on the active market, up 9 in the last two-weeks. Last year there were 44 total distressed homes on the market, fewer than today.
  • There were 2,558 closed residential resales in April, 2% fewer than April 2018’s 2,614 closed sales. April marked a 13% increase from March 2019. The sales to list price ratio was 97.9% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.3% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.4%. That means that 99.3% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

To request to read/download the full report and charts, please email info(at)echelberger(dotted)com.

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