The start to 2019 is unlike the last 6-years, paving the way for a much different year. There are a lot more homes, demand is down, and the Expected Market Time is at its highest level since January 2011.
2018 fourth quarter was the most sluggish we’ve seen since 2008, with inventory being high and demand low. Now that we’re at the start of 2019, the inventory is a lot higher than what we’re used to. This is due to the fact that the interest rate is favorable. This has generated an increase in online activity, as well as, open houses and showings. Right now we have a Balanced Market, which will lead to a more consistent summer.
ORANGE COUNTY HOUSING MARKET SUMMARY:
- The active listing inventory increased by 82 homes in the past two weeks and by 346 homes since January 1. It now totals 6,911. Last year, there were 3,707 homes on the market, 2,204 fewer than today. There are 59% more homes than last year.
- In 2018, 11% fewer homes came on the market below $500,000 compared to 2017, and there were 26% fewer closed sales. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly vanishing.
- Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased in the past two-weeks by 138 pending sales and now totals 1,165, its lowest level since 2008. Last year, there were 1,447 pending sales, 24% more than today.
- The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County increased from 134 days two weeks ago to 152 days today, a Buyer’s Market and the highest level since January 2011. It was at 77 days last year.
- For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a Balanced Market (between 90 and 120 days) with an expected market time of 107 days. This range represents 43% of the active inventory and 61% of demand.
- For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 144 days, a slight Buyer’s Market. This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 19% of demand.
- For luxury homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 176 days, a Buyer’s Market.
- For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time increased from 211 to 252 days.
- For luxury homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 245 to 365 days.
- For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 329 to 347 days.
- For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 941 to 1,279 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 31% of the inventory and only 13% of demand.
- Distressed homes, both short sales, and foreclosures combined, made up only 1.1% of all listings and 2.3% of demand. There are only 24 foreclosures and 43 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 67 total distressed homes on the active market, up two from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 50 total distressed homes on the market, slightly less than today.
There were 1,789 closed residential resales in December, 21% fewer than December 2017’s 2,269. December marked a 12% drop over November 2018. The sales to list price ratio was 96.3% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.4% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.7%. That means that 98.9% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
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ORANGE COUNTY HOUSING REPORT